When it comes to the jobs market I’m an AI optimist
By Justin Somerville-Cotton
Talk over the weekend was all about how there is a 10% chance AI will end humanity in the coming years. I'm not qualified to give an opinion on that but my hunch is we're not about to suffer an AI-led extinction event (fingers crossed).
I'm a little more qualified to comment on the other AI threat that regularly hits the headlines - that it's coming for all our jobs, particularly early careers roles. I'm an optimist here too - I’m not convinced it's entirely to blame for the lack of opportunities right now or that we're on an inevitable path to universal worklessness.
I’m not dismissing the data. But when it comes to jobs, I’m inclined to think that global market forces and economic headwinds are having more of an impact.
There’s a lot of evidence out there to counter the negative employment-eating narrative surrounding AI. On a personal level I have seen immense opportunities for efficiencies in my role, which are not coming at the expense of other people’s jobs.
While the headlines paint a depressingly black and white picture, research suggests what’s going on in the jobs market is far more nuanced.
A recent Strada Education Foundation survey of senior talent leaders found something interesting: leaders are 2.7x more likely to say AI will increase entry-level hiring in 2026 than decrease it. Nearly a third of firms growing junior headcount point to AI as the biggest reason why. And over 40% say AI has pushed more analytical, judgement-based work onto junior staff, increasing responsibility earlier in their careers.
That echoes what I'm hearing from clients. The roles that are shrinking are the narrow, repetitive ones such as pure data entry, first-draft admin, and to some extent basic screening tasks featuring clear right and wrong answers.
On the plus side, the roles being created ask juniors to review, judge and add value to AI output from week one, which is a genuinely richer start to a career than most of us got. Incidentally, a machine took my first job of flipping burgers, but that opened up a move to the dressings station. My job wasn’t lost, we just served more burgers more quickly!
PwC's latest Global AI Jobs Barometer backs this up: AI-exposed roles are seeing faster wage growth, not slower as the market is repricing judgement, not phasing it out. On a national level recent GDP growth has been attributed to AI.
None of this means the transition will be painless. Analysis from IntuitionLabs makes the point that "narrowing and shifting" is probably where we are heading. It’s not a clear story either way, but I think the "AI is coming for junior jobs" narrative undersells how much opportunity there is to redesign entry-level roles around the skills AI either can't do or we would prefer didn’t do.
From my perspective, judgement around assessments is a very good case in point, particularly with the EU AI Act now in force and tightening from December 2027. Firms using AI in their process need to be sure they are using it correctly and not leaving AI to make hiring decisions, otherwise they could be hit with huge fines.
I'd love to hear how you view the changes that AI is undoubtedly driving. Do you agree with me that work is quickly evolving, but not disappearing? Or am I being too optimistic?
Connect with me on LinkedIn and let me know!
